Smart Money & Options Intel
MSFT
Three-in-one intel view: Option Probability (lognormal terminal-price model), Max Pain (dealer pin map from open interest), and Institutional 13F (latest reported positions from Goldman, JPMorgan, Jane Street, Citadel, Susquehanna, Renaissance — with quarter-over-quarter deltas).
$393.83
6/16/2026, 8:00:01 PM
Option Probability · risk-neutral / model-implied
MSFT Option Probability
Lognormal terminal-price model. Approximation only — not a guaranteed forecast and not investment advice. Volatility source: Historical volatility fallback, not live options IV.
Prob. above target
84.45%
Prob. below target
15.55%
Expected move
±11.36 (2.9%)
Days to expiry
3
σ (annual)
31.82%
1σ low
382.61
1σ high
405.34
2σ low
371.73
2σ high
417.20
Model: lognormal terminal-price model with drift μ = ln(S₀) + (r − q − ½σ²)T and std σ√T. Probabilities are risk-neutral and shift with assumed IV, rate, and dividend yield. They are not guaranteed forecasts and do not constitute investment advice.
MSFT Max Pain · 2026-06-19
The strike where total option writer payout (call + put) is minimized at expiration — i.e. where dealers would prefer the stock to settle. Convergence is a tendency, not a guarantee; treat it as one piece of structural evidence alongside flow and catalysts.
Options chain unavailable for MSFT (Yahoo blocked or no listed expiries). ConfigureIBKR_BASE_URL orPOLYGON_API_KEY to enable Max Pain.
MSFT 大机构持仓扫描
On-demand 拉取 Goldman Sachs、JPMorgan、Jane Street、Citadel 等最新公开 13F。注意：13F 是季度披露， 不是实时仓位；它回答“这些大机构上一季公开报了什么”，不是“此刻正在买卖什么”。